Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $550,757$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{613,650.4}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 159.3)}}\) (asimptote \(613,650.4\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $31,650$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,577.6}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 182.1)}}\) (asimptote \(40,577.6\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $76,433$ on 2020-10-22
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $308,247$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{916,219.9}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 258.2)}}\) (asimptote \(916,219.9\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,319$ on 2020-10-22
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,591$ on 2020-10-22
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $442,164$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{520,189.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 183.0)}}\) (asimptote \(520,189.5\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10,465$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,469.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 154.5)}}\) (asimptote \(10,469.9\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $59,873$ on 2020-10-22
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $111,837$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98,996.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 130.6)}}\) (asimptote \(98,996.0\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,147$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,226.3}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 145.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,226.3\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,741$ on 2020-10-22
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $79,211$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,257.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 164.4)}}\) (asimptote \(86,257.4\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $308$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{306.0}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 145.8)}}\) (asimptote \(306.0\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,063$ on 2020-10-22
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $54,006$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,722.7}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 122.3)}}\) (asimptote \(46,722.7\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,122$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,174.9}{1 + 10^{-0.865 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,174.9\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,158$ on 2020-10-22
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $119,420$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{119,178.1}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 148.6)}}\) (asimptote \(119,178.1\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $730$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{639.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 87.2)}}\) (asimptote \(639.0\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,976$ on 2020-10-22
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $343,774$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{336,456.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 105.9)}}\) (asimptote \(336,456.5\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,250$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,283.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 121.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,283.7\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,343$ on 2020-10-22