Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Israel
  • Iraq
  • Oman
  • Bahrain
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Kuwait
  • Saudi Arabia
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Uzbekistan
  • Maldives
  • Tajikistan
  • Bangladesh

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $550,757$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{613,650.4}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 159.3)}}\) (asimptote \(613,650.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $31,650$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,577.6}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 182.1)}}\) (asimptote \(40,577.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $76,433$ on 2020-10-22

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $308,247$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{916,219.9}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 258.2)}}\) (asimptote \(916,219.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,319$ on 2020-10-22

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,591$ on 2020-10-22

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $442,164$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{520,189.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 183.0)}}\) (asimptote \(520,189.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10,465$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,469.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 154.5)}}\) (asimptote \(10,469.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $59,873$ on 2020-10-22

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $111,837$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98,996.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 130.6)}}\) (asimptote \(98,996.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,147$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,226.3}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 145.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,226.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,741$ on 2020-10-22

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $79,211$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,257.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 164.4)}}\) (asimptote \(86,257.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $308$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{306.0}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 145.8)}}\) (asimptote \(306.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,063$ on 2020-10-22

Kyrgyzstan⮸

Population $6,524,195$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $54,006$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,722.7}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 122.3)}}\) (asimptote \(46,722.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,122$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,174.9}{1 + 10^{-0.865 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,174.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,158$ on 2020-10-22

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $119,420$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{119,178.1}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 148.6)}}\) (asimptote \(119,178.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $730$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{639.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 87.2)}}\) (asimptote \(639.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,976$ on 2020-10-22

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $343,774$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{336,456.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 105.9)}}\) (asimptote \(336,456.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,250$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,283.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 121.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,283.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,343$ on 2020-10-22

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Saudi Arabia recovered 87%
Uzbekistan recovered 77%
Israel recovered 76%
Maldives recovered 66%
Bahrain recovered 56%
Tajikistan recovered 55%
Bangladesh recovered 32%
India recovered 32%

Uzbekistan⮸

Population $33,469,203$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $64,439$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{68,859.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 151.4)}}\) (asimptote \(68,859.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $540$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{563.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 137.1)}}\) (asimptote \(563.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,241$ on 2020-10-22

Maldives⮸

Population $540,544$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,358$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,187.4}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 173.2)}}\) (asimptote \(14,187.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $37$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41.5}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 102.3)}}\) (asimptote \(41.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $938$ on 2020-10-22

Tajikistan⮸

Population $9,537,645$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,653$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,867.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 53.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9,867.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $81$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{78.8}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(78.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-30 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $848$ on 2020-10-22

Bangladesh⮸

Population $164,689,383$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $394,827$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{385,858.3}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 102.1)}}\) (asimptote \(385,858.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-07 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,747$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,918.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 114.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,918.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $78,548$ on 2020-10-22